---
Title: China in 5 and 15 years
Date: 30/10/2020
Category: China
Tags: crisis imperialism state-capitalism
URL: https://marxismo.school/communia/en/china-in-5-and-15-years
---


bureaucracy|high bureaucrats

Obviously, there is substantial variation in the analysis from rival imperialisms. The U.S. press emphasizes the [bet on technological sovereignty and the foreseeable rise of militarism](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/29/world/asia/china-five-year-plan-communist-party.html). The Japanese press, although [relieved by the announcement of a greater opening of the Chinese internal market](https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20201030/p2g/00m/0in/095000c), fears that the _green deal_, in theory an opportunity to sell clean technologies, [will raise _obstacles for Japanese companies to expand their local operations_](https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20201030/p2g/00m/0bu/077000c).

imperialism|imperialist

## The core: a defensive movement in three times

[![](https://marxismo.school/communia/en/assets/flota-mar-de-china-meridional.jpg)](https://marxismo.school/communia/en/assets/flota-mar-de-china-meridional.jpg)

The trade war and the growing military pressure in the China Sea and the exit to the Indian Ocean have made the CCP bureaucracy aware of its strategic weaknesses. This has strengthened the outlook of the military sector, which had been raising the issue for twenty years. We should not forget that Huawei and other strategic companies are a business excrescence of the _People's Liberation Army_ (PLA), which is also the largest infrastructure builder in the Chinese state. As an analyst from the Beijing Academy of Sciences commented:

> China has a deep understanding of its deficiencies in technology, economy and living standards that could be the target of the United States... only when these shortcomings are overcome can China be impeccable

The core of the new Chinese strategy therefore bears the stamp of the PLA and is materialized in a three-phase movement:


The distinction between economic vanguard (exports) and rearguard (domestic market) is strengthened, with the concept of _dual circulation_: two mercantile circuits between which the state would mediate to ensure a balanced growth. It would be a matter of [maximizing exports](http://spanish.xinhuanet.com/2020-10/30/c_139478364.htm) by developing a flexible internal economy capable of supplying through credit and demand policies the stoppages and abrupt changes that the imperialist conflict might produce in foreign demand. The aim is thus to avoid commercial or technological blockades, disruptions in supply routes and armed conflicts that would destabilize the internal productive fabric and feed situations of instability.


[Technological sovereignty and resource sufficiency](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3107660/chinese-communist-party-wraps-top-policy-meeting-outlining) become key points to strengthen the export sector in the face of trade warfare and technological blockades. Developing its own semiconductor and chip industry, and [joining the technology blockade game with the United States](https://mainichi.jp/articles/20201017/k00/00m/030/266000c) are becoming priority objectives. The goal of global leadership in new technologies such as AI takes a back seat. The change points to a perspective not only of _self-sufficiency_ as highlighted by the press, but of true _technological rupture_ and industrial standards.


The strengthening of Chinese capital's _rearguard_ is also materialized geographically and energetically. The military has been struggling for a long time to accelerate the _conquest of the West_. Although details have not yet been published, it is already assumed that the new special economic zones will be established with priority in the western regions, bordering Russia, Mongolia and the Central Asian republics. The aim is to move the industry to strategically safer regions and to promote continental logistic routes, with the possibility of transporting production by land to Europe and the Middle East in case of instability in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. On the other hand, the implementation of a _green deal_ under the heading of _goals for a beautiful China_, will not only mean a form of transferring resources from labor to capital to revive accumulation - as in Europe\- but will have a strategic dimension, of _energy sovereignty_ something which is secondary for its rivals.

## Uncertainty and power

[![](https://marxismo.school/communia/en/assets/quinto-plenario.jpg)](https://marxismo.school/communia/en/assets/quinto-plenario.jpg) The head of the Chinese state bourgeoisie: Xi Jinping, Li Keqiang, Li Zhanshu, Wang Yang, Wang Huning, Zhao Leji and Han Zheng.

One of the most disturbing elements is that, for the first time, a five-year plan [has no quantitative targets](https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2020/10/29/china-unveils-5-year-path-to-becoming-a-tech). This quiet acceptance of uncertainty is also accompanied by a cryptic reaffirmation of Xi's goal of building the world's largest army by 2049... already with a certain urgency because, [as the Hong Kong press comments](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3107686/policy-meeting-ends-defiant-note-chinese-leadership-insists):

> Basically, the goal is to develop the PLA's capacity to match the U.S. military by 2027, so that it can effectively deter U.S. military interference in the Taiwan Strait

state capitalism

nationalism

> For the first time, China has set a clear timetable for building a great socialist culture by 2035, one of its long-term visionary goals, according to Wang Xiaohui, deputy director of the Central Propaganda Department. China's cultural soft power and comprehensive influence will be further enhanced, he said, with three key tasks for the next five years: improving the level of social civilization, improving the level of public culture and enhancing the cultural system.

militarism