The Commercial Crisis in Britain (1855, draft)

Transcription with doubtful readings: 185 of the 1986 words of the text that remains after the deletions (9.3 %) are marked as uncertain ([?]) or illegible ([ilegible]), and each of them is explained in a note. Manuscript draft by Karl Marx, January 1855, of the article «The Commercial Crisis in Britain» (New-York Daily Tribune, 26 January 1855), kept at the IISG, Amsterdam (Karl Marx / Friedrich Engels Papers, inv. A 38, images 2-4; the paper is damaged at the edges). Transcribed from the digital facsimile by the Escuela de marxismo, 2026, by two independent readings collated with each other and, line by line, with the enlarged image; wherever the two readings differ and the image does not decide, the word is marked [?] and the note gives the other reading. The draft is small, dense and heavily corrected: long deletions that cannot be read are given as [ilegible] (one mark per word, estimated) and are not counted above; in the middle and lower half of the second page the line breaks and the place of some additions are uncertain. The printed article is on our site: The Commercial Crisis in Britain. Nothing has been completed from other editions. Diplomatic transcription: spelling and punctuation of the manuscript; underlining in italics; deletions as text; additions above the line or in the margin in their place, with a note; [?] after an uncertain reading, [ilegible] for a word that cannot be read. Traducción al español

The [ilegible] English Commercial crisis the [ilegible] lowering[?]¹ symptoms of which were long before chronicled in the the New York Tribune, [ilegible] [ilegible] [ilegible] [ilegible] a [ilegible] openly proclaimed A is² now [ilegible]³ loudly⁴ proclaimed to have set in by the highest authorities in this matter - the annual circulars of British Chambers of Commerce and the leading [ilegible] houses [ilegible]⁵ first-rate commercial establishments. There are [ilegible] bankruptcies and [ilegible] [ilegible] which speak [ilegible] [ilegible] There are besides extensive bankruptcies, short time[?] among[?] mills[?],⁶ and stunted tables of exports which speak to the same effect. According to⁷ The latest official⁸ "Accounts relating to Trade and Navigation", the declared value of enumerated articles in the month ended December 5[?]⁹ was:

1852 | 1853 | 1854.
£ | £ | £
6,033,030 —— | 7,628,760 —— | 5,771,772
Decrease[?]¹⁰ 1854 —— — 261,258 —— | 1,856,988

We cannot be astonished that [ilegible] at¹¹ the professional freetraders of Great Britain who had again and again endeavouring to show that the present[?]¹² crisis altogether instead[?] of[?]¹³ [ilegible] a day at[?] thriving[?] from¹⁴ [ilegible] [ilegible] - the [ilegible] natural working of the modern [ilegible] English¹⁵ system and altogether corresponding to the cases of[?]¹⁶ [ilegible] 1836 and 1847, had experienced¹⁷ [ilegible] [ilegible]¹⁸ [ilegible] [ilegible] in periodical intervals almost since the [ilegible] end¹⁹ of the present 18th²⁰ century [ilegible] on the contrary²¹ altogether produced from accidental and exceptional [ilegible] circumstances. According to their[?]²² tenets[?]²³ of their[?] school²⁴ commercial crises were out of the question [ilegible] [ilegible] [ilegible] since the²⁵ Cornlaws were became abrogated and freetrade principles [ilegible] [ilegible] were[?]²⁶ accepted by [ilegible] [ilegible] the legislature of their country. Now they have got not only high corn-prices [ilegible] notwithstanding[?]²⁷ [ilegible] an abundant²⁸ harvest, but a commercial crisis²⁹ [ilegible] happen [ilegible] added to the markets of the world and³⁰ and added to the markets [ilegible] [ilegible] again[?]³¹ Empire[?]³² [ilegible] [ilegible] with [ilegible] California and Australia pouring forth their golden streams. If their panacea was to be put to the test, it could not be [ilegible] be expected³³ under to happen under³⁴ [ilegible] circumstances more favourable³⁵ than those [ilegible] which a [ilegible] [ilegible] made[?]³⁶ will for ever³⁷ equalize the period from 1849-54 in the history of trade and commerce. The[?]³⁸ [ilegible]³⁹ The war is now to be the scape-goat of freetrade, as in 1848 it was the Revolution. They [ilegible] do[?] not[?]⁴⁰ deny⁴¹ [ilegible] that to a certain measure the oriental⁴² war has⁴³ [ilegible] delayed the revulsion by arresting[?]⁴⁴ checking⁴⁵ the spirit of reckless enterprise and [ilegible] carrying[?] off⁴⁶ throwing part of the surplus-capital[?]⁴⁷ [ilegible] into [ilegible] to the⁴⁸ foreign loans contracted by the most of the European powers; that some trades like the iron trade, leather trade, wool trade etc received some support at by from⁴⁹ the extraordinary demand the war afforded created for⁵⁰ them; and lastly that others as[?]⁵¹ to[?]⁵² those trades. the shipping, the woodtrade[?]⁵³ etc, [ilegible] the[?]⁵⁴ war[?]⁵⁵ fostered[?]⁵⁶ [ilegible] exaggerated⁵⁷ [ilegible] the[?] [ilegible] speculations[?] of the effects⁵⁸ on both sides of the Atlantic⁵⁹ the false expectations of the effects of the [ilegible] [ilegible] consequences [ilegible] the already [ilegible] [ilegible]⁶⁰ [ilegible] [ilegible] the trades [ilegible] [ilegible]⁶¹ which most [ilegible] [ilegible] a but as which was given [ilegible] particular[?]⁶² outlet was given to [ilegible] trades a tendency of overtrading. Their principal argument amounts to this that the war has produced high prices for all sorts of grain and that the high prices of provisions have engendered the crisis. Now it must be recollected that the average cornprices [ilegible] [ilegible] higher ruled higher in 1853 than in 1854. If then the highcornprices[?]⁶³ [ilegible] are not[?]⁶⁴ to account for the unprecedented prosperity of 1853, they can as little account for the revulsion of 1854. In 1836 the[?] year[?] year of⁶⁵ [ilegible], a general revulsion notwithstanding the⁶⁶ with low cornprices. In 1824, and[?]⁶⁷ 1853, these were⁶⁸ [ilegible] years of exceptional prosperity notwithstanding the high prices for all sorts of provisions. The truth is that⁶⁹ although⁷⁰ high cornprices may⁷¹ [ilegible] cripple the commercial and industrial prosperity by contracting the home market, [ilegible] in a country like Great Britain, the home market⁷² [ilegible] [ilegible] will never⁷³ turn the balance when unless⁷⁴ already all foreign markets are be already⁷⁵ hopelessly overstocked. and the crisis has already set in High cornprices must, therefore, in such a country aggravate and prolong the revulsion, which[?] tends[?]⁷⁶,⁷⁷ but they are far from unable to⁷⁸ create it. Besides it must not[?]⁷⁹ be forgotten that [ilegible] - conforming to the often repeated so[?] [ilegible]⁸⁰ doctrine[?]⁸¹ of the⁸² altogether⁸³ Manchester school highcornprices[?],⁸⁴ if produced instead of by the regular course of nature⁸⁵ only by the working of protection [ilegible], prohibitive laws and sliding-scales, lose their fatal influence and [ilegible] may⁸⁶ even work beneficially advantageously by doing good to the farmers.⁸⁷ [ilegible] The two very deficient harvests of 1852 and 1853 not were natural ones, the freetraders from[?]⁸⁸ to the [ilegible]⁸⁹ year 1854 and affirm that the oriental war, working like a protective duty, [ilegible] produced high cornprices notwithstanding a plentiful harvest. Putting then aside the [ilegible] [ilegible] to the general⁹⁰ influence of high[?]⁹¹ cornprices on upon industry [ilegible], the question arises as [ilegible] as to⁹² [ilegible] [ilegible] to[?]⁹³ the influence of the [ilegible] [ilegible] [ilegible]⁹⁴ war on[?]⁹⁵ the cornprices [ilegible]⁹⁶ of 1854.

The Russian importation of wheat and flour constitutes about 14% of the entire importation of the United Kingdom, and the whole importations forming but about 20% of the [ilegible]⁹⁷ aggregate consumption, Russia does afford very little more than 2½% of the whole. According to the latest official returns, which do not extend over the first 9 months of 1853, the entire imports of wheat were 3,[ilegible] 770,921 qrs, of which 773,507 qrs were from Russia, and 209,000 qrs from Wallachia and Moldavia. Of flour the entire⁹⁸ imports were 3,800,766 Cwts, of which 64 Cwts were from Russia, and none from Wallachia and Moldavia. During the corresponding months of 1854, the importation of wheat from Russian ports direct was 525,000[?]⁹⁹ qrs against 773,507 in 1853 and 168,000 qrs from the danubian principalities against 209,000 in the previous year; being a deficiency of 307,507¹⁰⁰ qrs. Nobody will affirm that such a deficiency [ilegible] will account for the high cornprices of 1854 if it is substituted If the¹⁰¹ we considered. that the harvest of 1854 was [ilegible] a superior and that of 1853 a very bad one, nobody will affirm that such a deficiency could exert any great¹⁰² influence on[?]¹⁰³ prices[?].¹⁰⁴ We see [ilegible] on[?]¹⁰⁵ the contrary from the returns in the Gazette of the weekly sales on the English markets [ilegible] of homegrown wheat, - these returns representing but a small portion of the entire sales of the whole country - + [ilegible] [ilegible] taken each[?]¹⁰⁶ month[?]¹⁰⁷ in[?]¹⁰⁸ present that had¹⁰⁹ of[?]¹¹⁰ the English cabinet had not prevented [ilegible] large¹¹¹ stores of wheat; to rot in the granaries of the principalities by at once[?]¹¹² blockading[?]¹¹³ the Sulina mouth of the Danube instead of Odessa, [ilegible] [ilegible] the war with Russia would not have stinted[?]¹¹⁴ the importation of wheat from¹¹⁵ to the [ilegible] small¹¹⁶ amount it has done. + the London consumption supply[?]¹¹⁷ of foreign¹¹⁸ flour nearly ⅔ [ilegible] being¹¹⁹ delivered by the United States, it must be avowed that the United States supplied in the last quarter of 1854 a worked by a greater influence worked more extensively on[?]¹²⁰ prices than the [ilegible] Russian war. + a that in the months of October and November 1854 only¹²¹ [ilegible] 163 148[?]¹²² qrs were sold against 758,061 in the corresponding months of 1853¹²³ making more than eight[?]¹²⁴ for the [ilegible]¹²⁵ deficiency caused - by the Russian war - [ilegible] but found[?]¹²⁶ by far[?]¹²⁷ the greater portion of [ilegible] cut[?]¹²⁸ [ilegible] adding[?]¹²⁹ to[?]¹³⁰ the weight[?]¹³¹ and in open contradiction¹³² to [ilegible] consequently the Manchester school It happens that this time¹³³ the greatest literary authority of the Manchester school english freetrade¹³⁴ the London Economist, quite untrue to its[?]¹³⁵ traditions, not only avows that "the war had little or no connection with the high price of grain", but also that the prosperity of 1853" was "cumulative[?]"¹³⁶; that, in 1853 there was a fever which has left to 1854 some[?]¹³⁷ of the debility consequent on disease", and¹³⁸ that whether war had come or not, a commercial revulsion was at hand." Mr James Wilson, the editor of the Economist,¹³⁹ is now prevented forced¹⁴⁰ by his official position in the ministry to make these confessions, being in official position in the ministry The [ilegible] of the New York Tribune

If it be asked, how to explain the high cornprices in Great Britain in the face of¹⁴¹ notwithstanding an abundant harvest, it will be remembered that more than[?]¹⁴² once, during the course of 1853, the other the fact was pointed out in the New York Tribune that of the freetrade delusions having offered causing¹⁴³ the greatest possible[?]¹⁴⁴ irregularities and mistakes errors¹⁴⁵ to take place in the operations of the British corntrade, [ilegible] to of¹⁴⁶ and depressing¹⁴⁷ the prices in the cornmarkets at the [ilegible] below their natural level [ilegible] when the[?]¹⁴⁸ advance¹⁴⁹ and¹⁵⁰ sufficient[?] orders for future deliveries¹⁵¹ alone could¹⁵² could have secured the necessary supplies. Thus it [ilegible] happened that the imports in the months of July, August, September and October 1854 [ilegible] reached but 750,000 qrs, against 2,132,000 qrs in the same months of 1853. Besides, it can[?]¹⁵³ hardly be doubted that consequent upon the [ilegible] repeal¹⁵⁴ of the cornlaws such large tracts of arable land have been transformed into pasturing as to [ilegible] make[?]¹⁵⁵ an make[?]¹⁵⁶ even an[?]¹⁵⁷ abundant harvest under the new regime relatively defective. "Consequently", to quote the circular of the Hull Chamber of Commerce, the United[?]¹⁵⁸ Kingdom commences the year 1855 with very small stocks of foreign wheat, and with prices almost as high as in the beginning of 1854, whilst [ilegible] is open depending almost entirely on its own farmers' supplies until spring."

The true reason [ilegible] true reason of English¹⁵⁹ of the commercial revulsion of 1854, and the whole of¹⁶⁰ which might be [ilegible] is likely to assume its true dimensions till[?]¹⁶¹ the spring of 1855, is contained in the following few arithmetical operations: The exports of British produce and manufactures reached in 1853 about 98,000,000 l[?].,¹⁶² while in 1846 the value of British produce exported was but 57,786,000 l. From these 98,000,000 l[?].¹⁶³ of 1853¹⁶⁴ Australia which in 1842, had taken off less than 1,000,000 and in 1850 about 3,000,000 absorbed nearly 15,000,000 l.¹⁶⁵ [ilegible]¹⁶⁶ and the United States took[?]¹⁶⁷ the exports to which [ilegible] the [ilegible]¹⁶⁸ in 1842 only to 3,582,000 l, and in [ilegible] in 1850 nearly 15,000,000 l. and in 1853 almost 24,000,000 l. [ilegible] the[?] [ilegible]¹⁶⁹ [ilegible] [ilegible]¹⁷⁰ to which [ilegible] [ilegible] when[?]¹⁷¹ the[?]¹⁷² revulsion[?]¹⁷³ often¹⁷⁴ [ilegible] concerned[?]¹⁷⁵ amounted in 1842 only to 3,582,000 l. and in 1850 to nearly not yet¹⁷⁶ 15,000,000. of British exports¹⁷⁷ the Australian and American markets were a [ilegible] Done[?]¹⁷⁸ [ilegible] [ilegible] [ilegible]¹⁷⁹ of the [ilegible]. hopelessly[?] and[?] of[?] the glutted[?] Australian[?] market[?], which[?]¹⁸⁰ the American crisis upon English trade it need[?]¹⁸¹ then no further explanation. In 1837[?]¹⁸² the American crisis was full [ilegible] [ilegible]¹⁸³;¹⁸⁴ but[?]¹⁸⁵ in[?]¹⁸⁶ both continuation consequence fully[?]¹⁸⁷ of the English crisis of 1836[?].¹⁸⁸ They have the whole¹⁸⁹ English crisis appears as English[?]¹⁹⁰ crisis[?]¹⁹¹ preceded[?]¹⁹² the[?]¹⁹³ American[?]¹⁹⁴ one[?];¹⁹⁵ the[?]¹⁹⁶ fatal[?]¹⁹⁷ [ilegible] working[?]¹⁹⁸ [ilegible] explaining the crisis [ilegible] thus maybe traced to the same originated may be traced to the same source - If the [ilegible] of the English industrial system - which leads to overproduction in Great Britain and overspeculation in all other countries. so far as[?]¹⁹⁹ United States. If[?]²⁰⁰ the United [ilegible] all other markets of the²⁰¹ the Australian and the United States figured the foremost in the [ilegible] markets from [ilegible], [ilegible] exceptions to the general[?]²⁰² [ilegible] state[?] of[?] the²⁰³ market of the world, are only the highest expressions of that overrun[?] has become the general [ilegible] on a larger or smaller scale but[?]²⁰⁴ in[?]²⁰⁵ the[?]²⁰⁶ [ilegible] [ilegible] [ilegible] competition its[?]²⁰⁷ general[?]²⁰⁸ condition[?].²⁰⁹ We have the fact staring us²¹⁰ in the face of glutted foreign markets and unprofitable returns, with few exceptions. In almost[?]²¹¹ a circular relating to the cotton trade - "Most of the foreign markets", says another circular relating to the silk trade "usual[?]²¹² outlets[?] for our manufacturing²¹³[?]²¹⁴ [ilegible] have been groaning under the effects of overtrading." "Production was enormously increased",²¹⁵ we are told by an account of the Bradford worsted trade, and the [ilegible] goods but[?] a[?] poor[?]²¹⁶ found an outlet in foreign markets ... much irregular business has been done in reckless consignments of goods abroad, and we need scarcely remark that the results generally have been of the most unsatisfactory character". And so on. through²¹⁷ the [ilegible] all the commercial circulars. The Levant market is ( owing[?] to[?] the Oriental war²¹⁸ was the only one which can be said could[?]²¹⁹ to have not been overdone. consequent upon the apprehensions of a [ilegible] therefore [ilegible]²²⁰,²²¹ retarding[?]²²² what had been expected²²³ in that zone, and at this Consequently therefore²²⁴ two months since Lancashire [ilegible] ... the revulsion is[?]:²²⁵ very moment[?]²²⁶ Constantinople is also groaning under the²²⁷ accumulating²²⁸ masses[?]²²⁹ of British produce. This[?] way[?] the Insurrection[?] with²³⁰ [ilegible] that country Spain and [ilegible] of and the consequent ascendancy of the contraband trade are of too late[?]²³¹ [ilegible] date[?]²³² to have[?]²³³ exerted[?]²³⁴ a[?]²³⁵ perceptible influence on others. China is the only country²³⁶ [ilegible] where political events can be pretended to have²³⁷ the development of the English commercial revulsion. "The hopes entertained about a gradual increase in our export trade with²³⁸ China", say Messrs. Kayser[?]²³⁹ & C°[?]²⁴⁰ of Manchester, [ilegible] have been almost entirely dispelled, and the rebellion spreading at present in that country at first considered as favourable to foreign intercourse, seems now to be regarded[?]²⁴¹ for the depredation of the country and the total ruin of trade in the export trade to China, which once was expan[?]²⁴² greatly", has almost entirely ceased." Our readers will remember that when the Chinese revolution first assumed war[?]²⁴³ we to predicted the disastrous effect it was likely to effects [ilegible] - [ilegible] the English exporttrade was to likely [ilegible] [ilegible] [ilegible] [ilegible] from it - [ilegible] [ilegible] the English exporttrade has now. In fact derived from the whole dragging[?]²⁴⁴ [ilegible] all connection between the war and a universal[?]²⁴⁵ crisis the symptoms of which had become apparent before the war was thought of, we are of course [ilegible] [ilegible]²⁴⁶ doubting aware that the war may may²⁴⁷ [ilegible] dangerously aggravate the [ilegible] severe ordeal Great Britain will now have to pass through. The continuance of the war is tantamount to an increase of taxation, and increased taxes on already receding[?]²⁴⁸ [ilegible]²⁴⁹ diminished incomes.²⁵⁰ On the other hand